Author: economycommentator

Investing in Gold

APMEX Reviews
Gold is like portfolio insurance

Investors who want to put their money into precious metals turn to cold more than any other metal. Gold is considered and excellent hedge against inflation and the vagaries of economic or political turmoil. Like other markets gold is subject to speculation, and it is common to purchase futures contracts and derivatives based on gold.

In September 2010 Joe Foster, a portfolio manager at the Van Eck International Gold Fund, explained why gold can be an excellent hedge against inflation:

“The currencies of all the major countries, including ours, are under severe pressure because of massive government deficits. The more money that is pumped into these economies – the printing of money basically – then the less valuable the currencies become.”

At a time when money made on bonds, equities and real estate does not properly compensate for risk and inflation, then investors turn to gold and other alternative types of investments in greater numbers. Some portfolio managers think of gold as a kind of “portfolio insurance.”

Experts Advise Caution as Housing Market Grows

With low mortgage rates and growing prices, the housing market is on the rise. Still, the U.S. economy has yet to truly stabilize, making it hard to guarantee the continuing growth of the real estate sector. Some experts are warning potential buyers to be aware of and prepare for potential shifts in the market.

Reuters discusses several key points made by Stan Humphries of Zillow.com:

 

New York’s New Medicaid Care System

New York is now working to alter the care system for nearly 1 million people on Medicaid through the federal health care reform called Health Homes.

According to the reform, patient care focuses on the case itself, and organized through a network which will include hospitals, mental health organizations, health plans, community-based institutions, addiction disorder providers and heatlh centers. A care manager will be elected to manage these numerous services.

According to Gov. Andrew Cuomo, it was no small feat for his staff to organize such a program in such little time. Agencies throughout the state have pooled resources to provide information and eduction to the public, as well as to health home applicants.

U.S. Economy on the Rise

Economists estimate that retail sales increased at a faster pace last month, while the U.S. housing market saw some improvement as the economy recovers.

According to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, purchases at retailers rose 0.8%, the highest in four months. May also saw a 0.6% climb. Household wealth and the labor market are both on the rise, leaving Americans less hesitant in their spending. Cars and trucks were purchased at the fastest rate since 2007.

Millan Mulraine of the U.S. rates research at TD Securities USA LLC explained: “The transition from a soft patch to a more sustained rebound is slowly beginning to take shape. The underlying tone of retail sales is encouraging. The positive momentum in housing will continue. Manufacturing has stabilized.”

Jenny Lin of Ford added, “Economic indicators continue to improve.” The “consumer spending growth pace is slowly picking up.”

Traducción Español

La Economía de Estados Unidos en Ascenso

Los economistas estiman que las ventas al por menor aumentaron a un buen ritmo el mes pasado, mientras que el mercado de viviendas de Estados Unidos vio algunas mejoras debido a  que la economía se recupera.

De acuerdo con las proyecciones medias de los economistas encuestados por Bloomberg, las compras al por menor aumentaron un 0.8%, la mayor suba en cuatro meses. En mayo también se dio una suba 0.6%. Tanto la riqueza del hogar, como el mercado laboral están creciendo, haciendo que los americanos piensen menos antes de gastar.  Los de autos y camiones fueron comprados en mayor cantidad que desde el 2007.

Millan Mulraine de la investigación de tasas de los Estados Unidos en el  TD Securities USA LLC explicó: “La transición de un bache a  un rebote sostenido está tomando forma lentamente. El tono subyacente de las ventas minoristas es alentador. El impulso positivo en el mercado de viviendas continuará. La fabricación se ha establecido.”

Jenny Lin de Ford agregó, “Los indicadores de la economía siguen mejorando.” El “ritmo del crecimiento de los gasto de los consumidores se está recuperando poco a poco.”

English Article

Experts Predict Increased Retail Sales in May

Economists believe that sales at U.S. retailers rose in May as the job market looks up and consumer confidence rises to boost automobile, home furnishing and clothing sales.

Experts predict a 0.4% rise, which would be the biggest in three months. April saw an increase of 0.1%, according to a forecast from a Bloomberg survey.

Gap Inc. and General Motors are two companies who have reported significant gains and hiring increases thanks to higher home and stock prices. Other brands who revealed May gains include L Brands Inc., Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works.

Glenn Murphy, Gap chairman and CEO, said: “We are pleased with the positive customer response to summer product across our brands and the continued momentum in the business.”

Ted Wieseman, an economist at Morgan Stanley, explained: “Consumers are not feeling the need to pare back their spending to offset the impact of the tax increases, with confidence in the labor market rising and balance sheets improving.”

In April, payrolls rose by 149,000 workers, and last month saw another 175,000 enter the labor force.

traducción español

Los Economistas Predicen el Aumento de las Ventas Minoristas en Mayo

Los economistas creen que las ventas minoristas en Estados Unidos aumentaron en mayo debido a que, ya que el mercado laboral mejora y la confianza de los consumidores aumenta, también lo hacen las ventas de automóviles, muebles y ropa.

Los expertos predicen un aumento del 0.4%, que sería el mayor en tres meses. Abril se encontró con un aumento del 0.1%, de acuerdo a un reporte de encuesta de Bloomberg.

Gap Inc. and General Motors son dos compañías que han reportado ganancias significante y un aumento de contrataciones gracias a que los precios de las casas y las acciones son más altos. Otras marcas que tuvieron ganancias en mayo son L Brands Inc., Victoria’s Secret y Bath & Body Works.

Glenn Murphy, presidente y CEO de Gap, dijo: “Estamos contentos con la respuesta de los consumidores a los productos de verano de nuestras marcas y el continuo impulso de los negocios.”

Ted Wieseman, un economista de Morgan Stanley, explicó: “Los consumidores no están sintiendo la necesidad de recortar sus gastos para compensar el impacto del aumento de los impuestos, debido a su confianza en la mejora del mercado laboral y el balance general.”

En abril, los pagos aumentaron para 149,000 trabajadores, y el mes pasado otros 175,000 empleados entraron en el mundo laboral.

English Article

Asia’s Economic Growth: Spotlight on India

According to a recent poll from Reuters, it appears that economic growth in India has witnessed an escalation in the first quarter of 2013. This is particularly good news for the Asian region given that it has encountered quite a substantial low in the last quarter of 2012.  This report indicates that India could be on the upswing, moving away from its downward spiral.

However, there is still much work to be done vis-à-vis strengthening India’s economy.  Indeed, according to economist Kruti Shah, this recent statistic is “only a marginal improvement with much of the support from a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector and better trade data in this quarter compared to the previous quarter.”   However, given that there has been somewhat of a recovery in the country’s exports, factories and investments, this had a positive, noteworthy impact on the performance of the overall economy. There was a slight increase in capital goods output as well as exports which saw an escalation from levels during the same time period as 2012.

Economists and financial predictors must still be aware of India’s current account deficit that witnessed an all-time high in the last quarter of 2012 and still today remains under substantial pressure. But simultaneously, inflation dropped below 5 percent in April 2013, which puts it in the Central Bank’s comfort zone for the first time in over three years.

traducción español

Crecimiento en la economía de Asia: con Foco en la India

De acuerdo con una encuesta reciente de Reuters, parecería que el crecimiento de la economía en India ha sido testigo de un crecimiento en el primer cuatro del 2013. Esto en particular es una buena noticia para Asia, ya que había sufrido una considerable baja el último cuarto del 2012. Este reporte indica que Inda podría estar en una fase de expansión, alejándose del espiral descendente.

De todas formas, todavía hay mucho trabajo que hacer de cara a fortalecer la economía de la India. En efecto, de acuerdo con Kruti Shah, estas estadísticas recientes “solo una mejora marginal se ha dado con mucho apoyo y una pequeña recuperación del sector industrial y mejores datos comerciales comparado con el cuarto de año anterior.”   Sin embargo, dado a que ha habido una pequeña recuperación en las exportaciones del país, fábricas e inversiones, esto ha tenido un notorio impacto positivo en la economía en general. Hubo un ligero aumento de la producción de bienes de capital, así como las exportaciones que vieron una suba de los niveles durante el mismo período en el 2012.

Los economistas y predictores financieros deben aún estar conscientes que la cuenta corriente de la India presenció un déficit que llegó a un máximo histórico en el último cuarto del 2012 y que aún sigue bajo una presión importante. Pero simultáneamente, la inflación cayó por debajo del 5 por ciento en Abril del 2013, lo que pone al Banco Central en una zona de confort por primera vez en tres años.

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