Paul Chew and U.S Exports in 2012

Brown Advisory’s head of investments Paul Chew recently rocked the financial boat by saying that the EU crisis will have a very minor impact on American businesses this year. He explained that the rising market demand for United States exports will balance any small decrease in European demand.

“A European recession would clearly hurt U.S. exports to Europe, but the U.S. economy us not overly exposed as the EU only represents approximately 20% of the total U.S. export market,” Chew said.

He went on to explain that S&P 500 gains are currently increasing beyond historical averages, in comparison to the more sluggish GDP. The earnings are also reducing new hires and preserving tight cost restraints.  GDP has jumped a mere 1.4%, while S&P 500 earnings have reached 15%.

Last year’s trends, namely volatility and thematic investing, do not interest Chew as much for the upcoming year, as he sees equity valuations as “relatively compelling.”